What are the lessons that India should draw from the Eurozone crisis that is unfolding now?
First, fiscal deficits do indeed matter. They matter less when a country has underperformed for so long that it has big catch-up possibilities that fuel growth, and this explains why India has not suffered like some other countries. Yet the taming of fiscal deficits and inflation in 2004-09 led to sharply reduced interest rates that were crucial in making India competitive in its 9% growth phase. The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) is a crude tool, yet did indeed help cut the fiscal deficit. The FRBM target of lowering the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP is sensible in good times, leaving scope for expanding it to 6.5% in a recession without causing a Greek tragedy.
Second, Greece and Portugal have demonstrated that fiscal deficits in countries with structural problems can send the debt/GDP ratio skyrocketing without stoking growth. India has many structural problems despite having advantages too, and so should beware fiscal excesses.
Third, Greece has shown that a monetary union is a bad idea that leads to loss of control over exchange rates. So, India must shoot down proposals for an Asian monetary union.
Second, Greece and Portugal have demonstrated that fiscal deficits in countries with structural problems can send the debt/GDP ratio skyrocketing without stoking growth. India has many structural problems despite having advantages too, and so should beware fiscal excesses.
Third, Greece has shown that a monetary union is a bad idea that leads to loss of control over exchange rates. So, India must shoot down proposals for an Asian monetary union.
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